I choose to believe the glass is half full

I've been reading the blog of Kent Newsome since I found him in Robert Scoble's blogroll. I think the similarity of surname made me zero straight in on him, but I've stayed subscribed because I've enjoyed reading his thoughts, and his ongoing review of Scoble's blogroll.

Today, Kent has published a rather down in the dumps post that talks about the difficulty of building a succesful blog. All of Kent's points about the difficulties are valid but I'd like to devil's advocate his position. Let me make a few counter arguments:

(1) Funnily enough Robert Scoble has just written a post that suggests only 4% of users are using RSS. True or not I believe the RSS opportunity that exists is still huge. Wherever you stand on the Microsoft versus Google versus Yahoo debate I believe that Vista, the next version of Internet Explorer and Office 12 all with RSS built into the framework will be the engineroom that brings the biggest growth in RSS usage.

(2) A look at the Technorati Top 100 has blogs on it that were launched less than 12 months ago. PostSecret is the one that sticks out in my mind - a great viral idea that just exploded in a few short months. I believe that in 12 months time the current Top 100 on Technorati will be a radically different landscape.

(3) I agree with Kent that there probably isn't much room for new blogs about blogging. The innovators rightly have that ground, and good for them. There is an advantage to being an early adopter that exists in any marketplace. Let me add one caveat to that - unless a new kid on the block does something amazing. I believe there is still plenty of room for the new kids on the block to do something pretty amazing.

Today of all days, I choose to believe the glass is half full. I choose to believe that it is possible to set off and achieve something great. I make one prediction today for 2006. That by the end of the year the Technorati Top 10 will contain a blog that today is not even on the Top 100. It may not be Kent Newsome or Steve Newson that owns that blog, but I believe in the possibility.

Technorati tags: Kent Newsome, Robert Scoble, Technorati, Vista, Office 12, predictions